Google’s Stance on Generative AI and Unemployment: No Direct Correlation (For Now)

According to a study by Google, there is currently no direct connection between the spread of artificial intelligence (AI) and unemployment. The study, conducted by Andrew McAfee, a research scientist at the MIT Sloan School of Management, examined the global economic impact of generative AI. The findings suggest that limitations in AI technology prevent it from reliably performing complex tasks that involve planning, reasoning, or memory. In a previous study, humans outperformed AI systems in answering questions that required these skills, with an average score of 92% compared to AI’s 15%. The study also noted that generative AI is improving rapidly through intensive research to address its weaknesses.

The study cited OpenAI’s GPT 3.5 system as an example of AI’s progress. It performed better than only 10% of humans on the U.S. bar exam. Just a year later, its successor, GPT 4, performed better than 90% of humans. Despite these advancements, the study concludes that there is still important work that cannot be done by current AI systems.

The study compares AI to the steam engine, which sparked the Industrial Revolution in the late 1800s. The impacts of generative AI are expected to occur more rapidly than the gradual spread of technology during the Industrial Revolution. This is because the existing infrastructure is in place, allowing for the quick implementation of improvements, and because generative AI is easily accessible for users.

While generative AI may not lead to mass unemployment, there is evidence that it could contribute to the “hollowing out” of higher-paying jobs. The study suggests that tasks performed by college graduates may be more affected by generative AI than those done by high school graduates. It also highlights the potential for generative AI to empower a small group of “superstars” in an industry, leading to increased competition and potential layoffs for incumbent companies.

The research also found that companies heavily invested in machine learning were not the ones conducting layoffs. This suggests that AI technology may have a positive impact on businesses that embrace it. While AI technology has the potential to transform the workforce and disrupt industries, its impact on unemployment may not be as significant as initially feared.