Bitcoin Hits $69K after Record Options Expiry

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) remained above $69,000, despite the largest quarterly Bitcoin futures options expiry events in the market. This expiration event could have a small impact on the short-term price movement as people roll over or unwind their hedging positions. Over $15.1 billion worth of cryptocurrency futures options expired on Deribit, with $9.53 billion in Bitcoin options. The “max pain” price potential for Bitcoin was $51,000, but this does not accurately reflect its long-term price potential. The expected price impact from the expiration is expected to be minimal. The key question is whether the profits from the options will be reinvested into new contracts and what strikes and maturities will be favored.

In the 24 hours leading up to 10:35 am UTC, the price of Bitcoin fell by 0.7% to $69,924. It is still up over 11.9% on the monthly chart. This correction is in line with previous historical retracements before the halving event. If Bitcoin can turn its old all-time high of $69,000 into support, this pre-halving correction may be over.

Hao Yang, the global head of derivatives trading at Bybit exchange, and Andrey Stoychev, the project manager at Nexo’s Prime Brokerage division, both believe that the impact of the options expiration will be minimal. They suggest that the profits from the options may be reinvested into new contracts, but it remains to be seen which strikes and maturities will be favored.

The expiration of over $15.1 billion worth of cryptocurrency futures options on Deribit is the largest in history. This event could have a small impact on the price of Bitcoin in the short term as people unwind their hedging positions. The “max pain” price potential of $51,000 does not accurately reflect the long-term price potential of Bitcoin.

According to Hao Yang, the max pain price point is only an indicator that provides some insight but has limited influence on the actual price movement of Bitcoin. Andrey Stoychev suggests that the impact of the expiration will be minimal due to delta hedging and the convergence of puts to zero. The pivotal question now is whether the profits from the options will be reinvested into new contracts and, if so, which strikes and maturities will be favored.

Despite the expiration of the cryptocurrency futures options, the price of Bitcoin remained above $69,000. It is up over 11.9% on the monthly chart, indicating that the pre-halving correction may be over. This is supported by the possibility of Bitcoin turning its old all-time high of $69,000 into support. The future price movement of Bitcoin will depend on various factors, including investor sentiment and market conditions.