Bitcoin’s 30-Day Retrace Before Halving: Historical Pattern

As the Bitcoin halving approaches in just a month’s time, the price of Bitcoin has retraced from its recent all-time high. Industry insiders remain optimistic and believe that this retracement is not a cause for concern. Bitcoin experienced significant price growth in 2024, with the price reaching a high of $73,737 in March. CEO of Jan3, Samson Mow, predicts that the price will continue to soar and surpass its all-time high, reaching $100,000 before the halving event.

While Mow predicts a significant price rise, others speculate that there may be a deeper dip in the price before the halving. It is possible that both a dip and a high could occur. Ran Neuner suggests that a 20-30% dip would be normal and healthy during a bull market. Danny Chong believes that there may be a temporary downturn after the halving but expects a positive overall market sentiment due to the growth of exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Despite the possibility of a dip, industry observers believe that the long-term direction for Bitcoin is upward. Institutional investors are driving higher demand for Bitcoin, which is expected to provide strong support for the price. Zac Cheah states that the 2024 halving is unique because institutional investors have heightened demand for Bitcoin. With the US Federal Reserve considering interest rate cuts, the positive case for Bitcoin becomes even stronger.

Cheah and Mow both predict that the price of Bitcoin could surge to $100,000. It remains to be seen if this will be achieved with the halving approaching. Bitcoin’s performance will be closely watched by the industry.

In terms of the broader crypto market, some speculate whether Bitcoin will continue to influence the rest of the market or if it will decouple. Mow believes that Bitcoin will decouple from other cryptocurrencies due to the inflows from ETFs. He states that “crypto” coins may initially track Bitcoin, but they will eventually lose steam and be left behind.

Despite the retracement in Bitcoin’s price, industry insiders remain bullish and believe that the price will continue to rise. While there may be a dip before the halving, the overall market sentiment is expected to remain positive. The involvement of institutional investors and the potential for lower interest rates further support the case for a higher Bitcoin price. It remains to be seen whether Bitcoin will decouple from the broader crypto market or continue to influence its movements.